Abstract
This paper aims to study the public transport mode choice behaviour of commuters in Delhi so that appropriate strategies to incentivize the use of public transport can be developed. We examine the efficacy of a multivariate statistical modelling approach to predict the probability of non-metro commuters to shift to the Delhi metro. We also analyse the reasons for this shift from private motor vehicles (PMVs) and buses. Data is collected through a survey of the metro commuters over various metro lines. A binomial logistic regression model is formulated to predict whether existing metro users have shifted from buses or are new additions to public transport shifting from PMVs. The model is validated well through several methods. The model analysis reveals that 57% of the metro users have shifted from buses and 28.8% from PMVs. The shift is more amongst females than males.
Highlights
The National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi is the largest city in India with a population of about 17 million at present [1] and is expected to be 24 million by 2021
The area targeted for the survey covers six stations of the Delhi Metro namely Hauz Khas (HK), Chandni Chowk (CC), Rajeev Chowk (RC), Kashmere Gate (KG), New Delhi (ND), and Central Secretariat (CS) (Fig. 1)
Mode shift from buses to metro occurs because buses take more time, and are more crowded compared to the metro
Summary
The National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi is the largest city in India with a population of about 17 million at present [1] and is expected to be 24 million by 2021. The number of private motor vehicles (PMVs) plying on Delhi roads have increased from 5.36 lakh in 1981 to 88.27 lakhs in 2014 [4]. All this growth and expansion comes with big issues around mobility. Various passenger mode choice models have been developed [10 - 12] in the literature, but no work, to the best of our knowledge has attempted to study this cannibalization effect in Delhi, i.e. the shift of commuters from one mode of public transport (buses) to the other (metro). The paper develops a binary logistic model to predict the probability of non-metro commuters of a given profile shifting to the metro
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