Beyond Threatening Capabilities: South Korea’s Threat Perception of North Korea

Abstract

While realism has dominated scholarly assessments of security issues on the Korean Peninsula, this chapter demonstrates that variances in South Korean threat perception of North Korea over time cannot be solely explained through North Korea’s material capabilities. Specifically, neorealism fails to explain variations when North Korea is perceived as aggressive. Thus, this chapter argues that fluctuations in South Korea’s threat perception are driven both by the historical evolution of the North-South conflict and by domestic politics in South Korea. First, South Korea and North Korea’s shared history and constant interaction have created a certain degree of predictability through establishing their own “rules of the game.” Second, South Korea’s threat perception has been influenced by domestic politics, particularly in terms of differing threat perceptions by the opposing political parties. The chapter concludes with thoughts on the question of how things will change under new South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol.