Beyond the bilateral balance: moving toward a new framework for analysis of Chinese nuclear strategy

Abstract

This article expresses reservations about the conventional wisdom that the dyadic framework of the Sino-US nuclear balance adequately accounts for the nuclear choices of the People’s Republic of China. I argue that a possible new analytical approach – one that moves beyond dyadic parsimony – could yield a more thorough understanding of Chinese nuclear policy. In moving toward this novel framework for analysis, I not only consider neighboring nuclear states – Russia, and especially India – but I also provide a fresh rationale for the timing of China’s nuclear force modernization.