Beyond the Battlegrounds? Electoral College Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Election

Abstract

A great deal of popular commentary during the 2008 presidential election focused on the expansiveness of Barack Obama's campaign. He seemed to be not simply competing in the battleground states that defined the Bush elections but also aggressively contesting traditional Republican strongholds. We examine the particulars of both the Obama and McCain strategies for amassing Electoral College majorities, comparing them with those of other recent campaigns. We also estimate the extent to which the campaigns allocated their resources—television advertising dollars and visits from the candidates—in accord with these plans. Contrary to our initial expectation, the data suggest that Obama pursued a “mixed” strategy, one not all that different from the strategy adopted by Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. In addition, there is overwhelming evidence that both Obama and McCain were careful to allocate resources in those states deemed most important to winning in the Electoral College.