Beyond temperature: risk estimates for adaptation planning

Abstract

The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) for the UK is a statutory requirement under the Climate Change Act. The Evidence Report for the Third CCRA, due 2020, will assess key current and future risks to public health from climate change and consider present and planned adaptation strategies to limit impacts on the UK population. The third CCRA function assesses whether current actions are sufficient to manage the climate risks to an acceptable level, and also to assess whether such actions improve or exacerbate adverse health outcomes and health inequalities. As essential part of the risk assessment process is the scientific evidence on current and likely future impacts of population health. More than 10 separate risks for public health are currently included in the assessment but published modelling estimates on health outcomes are only available for 1 risk - heat impacts on mortality and morbidity for the UK population. The Evidence Report will be used to develop the third iteration of the UK National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for actions to be taken in 2023-2028. The shift in focus from modelling future risks to the assessment of adaptation strategies has been developed in conjunction with key stakeholders. The long-term health and social consequences of climate change over the century are considered through a range of future scenarios, that consider both potential policy, and building and environmental “lock-ins”. Such lock-ins include potential risks to inhabitants from overheating due to building regulations failing to address increasing ambient temperatures. Climate change presents a challenge for organisations to deliver national policy responses ensuring that adaptation remains equitable and optimal for health.