Beyond Risk: A Measure of Distribution Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper addresses the critical yet often overlooked concept of distribution uncertainty (ambiguity) in decision making, emphasizing its importance alongside traditional outcome uncertainty (risk). It introduces a novel quantitative measure of ambiguity that accurately captures distribution uncertainty. This measure enhances empirical models, yielding more reliable parameter estimates and improving decision-making processes. The study demonstrates the practical value of this ambiguity measure using financial market decision making as an example. The measure helps identify and adjust for uncertainties in underlying distributions, supporting more robust financial models and better risk management. The findings advocate for integrating ambiguity considerations into data analytics models and developing more reliable methodologies for empirical research and practical applications. This study promotes a nuanced understanding of uncertainty, offering significant implications for research methodologies and practical risk management across various fields.