Beyond predict and provide: Embracing sufficiency synergies in road freight electrification across the European Union

Abstract

The challenge of aligning with the net-zero ambitions of the European Union necessitates a critical examination of the road freight transport sector, a pivotal contributor to global commerce and greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the sector's potential for electrification to mitigate emissions, the prevailing ‘predict and provide’ planning approach may inadvertently reduce this low-carbon transition to mere technological substitution, neglecting deeper intrinsic transport issues. This perspective critiques the ‘predict and provide’ approach and advocates for the adoption of ‘sufficiency-oriented planning’. It presents a comprehensive, interconnected approach, challenging not only the technology in use but also the foundational principles of transport demand. Furthermore, it explores the broader implications of this multi-system transition for the energy sector. The perspective consequently underscores the necessity of a paradigm shift in planning for road freight transport electrification for the sector to genuinely contribute to sustainability objectives and not risk diminishing the transformative potential of this transition.