Beyond hedging: China’s strategic ‘outbidding’ strategy in the semi-hierarchical Gulf region

Abstract

The prevailing analytical approach within international relations scholarship has primarily framed China’s growing involvement in the Gulf region through a hedging strategy. Although this framework offers explanatory value, it misses the impact of China’s search for international hierarchy and Sino-US rivalry for subordinates in shaping China’s strategic policy choices in the Gulf. This article, anchored in hierarchy studies in international relations, posits that the intensifying global competition between the United States and China for influence over subordinate states has driven China to pursue an ‘outbidding’ strategy. In applying this approach, China provides Gulf states with more appealing economic, military, and technological incentives than the United States. Since Xi Jinping’s ascension to power in 2013, China has considerably expanded its regional influence by investing heavily in this strategy. However, the long-term effectiveness of this strategy hinges on overcoming two key constraints inherent to the semi-hierarchical order of the Gulf: the distinct strategic considerations of US allies and non-allies and the balancing dilemma that China confronts. This article substantiates its claims by analyzing official statements, policy documents, and academic literature on China’s Gulf policy.