Abstract
This paper examines factors linked to first year attrition within the Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree at an Australian university. Drawing on a broad range of institutional data, the authors considered correlations between attrition and several variables. Our research revealed the need to move beyond analysis of geo-demographic factors towards indicators of student choice and educational achievement. While few demographic factors were found to be strong indicators of attrition, two other factors were clearly correlated. These factors – course preference, and first year educational performance – were significant predictors of attrition. Because subject failure is the single strongest predictor of attrition, and because the BA offers a wide range of subjects, developing strategies to ensure consistency and quality across those subjects is imperative.
Highlights
The need to raise student retention rates confronts the Australian university sector (Long, Ferrier & Heagney, 2006)
Preference level was found to be significantly correlated with attrition, with students who enrolled in the Bachelor of Arts (BA) having listed the course as their fourth preference or lower being relatively likely to withdraw from the course
We found no meaningful correlation when considering all available students with Australian Tertiary Admissions Rank (ATAR), while when we selected for recent school leavers only, we found a significant but minor correlation between attrition and ATAR: r =.13, p
Summary
The need to raise student retention rates confronts the Australian university sector (Long, Ferrier & Heagney, 2006). While some causes of attrition can be identified at the institutional level, retention rates vary considerably by course (Department of Innovation, Industry, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education [DIICCSRTE], 2011). This variation suggests a need for sophisticated analysis that focusses primarily on the courses most at risk. The institutional retention rate of the BA was 69.5%, compared with the university commencing bachelor level rate of 82.9% This means that while one in ten BA students transfers from the degree into another course within the same university, three in ten students depart the university altogether. 782 students remained enrolled at the university in 2011, creating an institutional retention rate of 69.5% for 2010-2011
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