Beyond demographic transition: Industrialization and population change in Singapore

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This paper discusses the demographic basis on which Singapore's population policy is founded. It examines the factors leading to rapid fertility decline and discusses the incentives to promote higher fertility and their prospects for success. In 1986, Singapore's total fertility rate was 1.44, the lowest in Asia. The decline is equally sharp for all ethnic groups. If this rate remains constant, Singapore's population would peak at 2.9 million in 2015 and then begin to decline. In 1957, the mean age at marriage was age 20; by 1986, it had increased to age 30. This delay in marriage is associated with increased education. The mean age of mothers at 1st birth has risen steadily from 23.4 years in 1970 to 26.7 years in 1986. As a result of the liberalization of access to abortion in 1973, there has been a steady increase in the number of abortions in Singapore. Female sterilization has become increasingly prevalent over the years. The government's announcement of a new population policy came as no surprise since fertility trends had been discussed by ministers. The new policy slogan "Have 3, and More If You Can Afford It" reflects the government's intention of promoting the 3-child family. A special tax rebate of $S20,000 is given to parents for the birth of their 3rd child after 1 January 1987. Children from 3-child families are given priority in primary school registration. Delivery and hospital costs arising from the delivery of the 4th child can be offset against the parents' earned income up to a maximum of $S3000. Priority allocation and other incentives are given to families who want to upgrade their Housing and Development Board apartments after the birth of their 3rd child. Married female civil servants are able to enjoy special unrecorded leave to look after their sick children who are under 6 years old. A unit has been established in the government to promote interaction among male and female university graduates. A public education program on the 3-child norm will be launched. Demographic trends suggest that a rebound of the fertility rate is unlikely to occur on its own. To the extent that small family size is rationally compatible with modern society, any effort to promote larger family size, however intense, is bound to have modest results.