Beyond Brinkmanship: Geographical Constraints and North Korea's Evolving Tactics

Abstract

IntroductionKorean history has seen the rise and fall of numerous kingdoms and states on the peninsula, competing against each other and battling external threats. In many ways, North Korea today faces similar challenges to the preceding kingdoms in the northern half of the peninsula, challenges shaped in large part by geography and locations. In looking at these deeper structural elements, and the way various Korean states adapted to the geographical constraints, North Korean behavior appears less erratic and less dogmatic. The recent shift in North Korean behavior at the negotiating table, then, becomes one predicated on how far along Pyongyang is in meeting its strategic imperatives.These imperatives are less choice than necessities for survival, and in the case of North Korea, or any other preceding or succeeding Korean state in the northern half of the peninsula, they can be summed up in just a few short points:1. Maintain strong internal cohesion of the population.2. Reduce or eliminate the threat to the weak southern border, where there are few defensible geographical boundaries.3. Reduce or remove the threat to the weak points of the northern border, particularly near the western border with China.4. Use larger external powers to balance each other in order to deal with the dual security threats from maritime and land-based neighbors.How North Korea or any other Korean state deals with these issues is a matter of choice, though not all choices work equally well. That North Korea must contend with its geographical and spatial vulnerabilities, however, is not a choice if the regime and state has any plan to survive.For North Korea in the modern world, the key to nearly all its core challenges is the United States. If North Korea eventually succeeds in reshaping relations with the United States, it will have significantly reduced, if not removed, the threat from the south. It will also be able to call on the United States to act as a buffer between Korea's more immediate historical threats; Japan and China. Finally, breaking free from the constraints of the current relationship with the United States could give Pyongyang greater access to international economic, development and technology resources, which, if used effectively, could both maintain internal social cohesion and strengthen the state.Geography and Place: Constraints and ChallengesThe Korean Peninsula is a narrow, mountainous appendix on Northeast Asia, stretching out from the Chinese-Russian border into the sea, aimed at Japan. In the North is a high plateau and mountains, with two rivers stretching to the east and west coasts (the Tumen and Yalu respectively) providing definition to the border. Figure 1 shows that in the east, a series of mountain ranges, most notably the Taebaek Range, stretches not far inland along the coast, providing a natural barrier to forces invading by sea. In the south, numerous islands guard the access to the weaker lowlands of the southwest. And along the west coast stretch the more fertile plains of Korea, though high tidal fluctuation have served as a hindrance to maritime invasion (though not a foolproof hindrance, as shown by the U.S. forces landing at Incheon in 1950).North Korea, like preceding northern-Korean states, faces a more immediate challenge from the south. Rather than having a clearly defined, if somewhat vulnerable, coastline as its border, North Korea's southern border sits along ill-defined geographical barriers. There is no defensible high mountain range like in the north or east, just the relatively low rolling hills and plains that stretch from the Taedong River in Pyongyang down through the Imjin River to the Han River flowing through Seoul. In the north, the primary vulnerability is near the mouth of the Yalu River, which creates a gap in the mountainous barriers to the North and opens a historically trod pathway to the peninsula from China and Manchuria. …