Between Probability and Possibility: Fostering Productive Research in a Dystopian Moment

Abstract

Abstract Scholars endeavor to understand the world in order to make it better. To do that, they should pay attention not only to probability but also possibility. I argue that accepting, and centering, the uncertainty endemic to the human condition and human relations could lead to at least two productive shifts. First, it could encourage holding tensions between particularity and generalization, description and theorization, and complexity and simplicity rather than resolving them a priori. This would promote more genuine thinking about the issues we study. Second, it could encourage critical reasoning about both epistemological bias and the limits of utopian ideas, leading to more serious ethical and normative considerations. I encourage honest conversations about the ubiquity of uncertainty and braver efforts to hold tensions, use our judgement and think. Holding space for unpredictability and imperfection promises to both yield better arguments about probability and open up insights into what is possible. It will thus foster research that best meets the demands of our time.