Abstract
Abstract The increasing interest in developing unconventional hydrocarbon resources will have important interactions with the transition to a low carbon energy system. The purpose of this article is to explore the uncertainty around the future development of shale gas and to study the complex relationship between climate change policies and energy security, using a methodology accounting for the multidimensional and systemic nature of energy security. Using a complex multiregional model of the global energy system, a scenario analysis has been developed to answer two questions: (i) to what extent and under which conditions is the deployment of shale gas consistent with a low carbon system? (ii) as a low carbon energy system prompts a number of structural changes along the whole energy supply chain, can shale gas help to dampen the negative impact on energy security of these changes? The structure of this article is as follows. Section 1 will conceptualize the links between energy security and low carbon policies and will introduce a methodological framework to assess their interactions. Section 2 will outline the modeling tools used for this assessment, and will elaborate on the input assumptions guiding the scenario analysis. Section 3 will present the results and discuss them in the context of the methodological framework set out in the first section. This will be followed by a conclusion and recommendation for future research.
Published Version
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