'Better Angels of Our Nature:' Optimism in Presidential Leadership

Abstract

The narratives with which Presidents describe themselves and their administrations may lend insights into attributes of presidential leadership. Among the most interesting attributes — and least-studied — is optimism. Do U.S. Presidents express themes of hope and optimism relatively more than others? How unified or different are the Presidents in expressing such sentiments? Is such an expression associated with the person’s life experience and the context while serving in office? And ultimately, how is optimism associated with a President’s legacy? This study examines self-narrative texts of post-World War II Presidents, including memoirs, inaugural addresses, and State of the Union messages. It is the first to assess sentiments in presidential memoirs, and to compare attributes of personality among Presidents using natural language processing. Analysis reveals that these Presidents express sentiments of hope and optimism significantly more than a mass of post-World War II literature. Yet the Presidents vary considerably in these sentiments, which are significantly associated with aspects of a President’s own life experience, and with aspects of the context of the President’s time in office. The findings reveal no association of optimism with one measure of a President’s legacy, the ranking by historians.