Best and brightest? The impact of student visa restrictiveness on who attends college in the US

Abstract

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, student F-1 visa applicants faced a 27 percent refusal rate that varies by time and region. Recent immigration policies have created uncertainty in whether international students will receive their visas. Using data on the universe of SAT takers between 2004 and 2015 matched with college enrollment records, we examine how the anticipated F-1 visa restrictiveness influences the enrollment of international students in the US. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that a higher anticipated F-1 student visa refusal rate decreases the number of international SAT takers, decreases the probability of sending SAT scores to US colleges, and decreases international student enrollment in the US. The decreases are larger among international students with higher measured academic achievement. We also document academic achievement of international students and show that over 40 percent of high-scoring international SAT takers do not pursue US college education.