BESS-Rice: A remote sensing derived and biophysical process-based rice productivity simulation model

Abstract

Conventional process-based crop simulation models and agro-land surface models require numerous forcing variables and input parameters. The regional application of these crop simulation models is complicated by factors concerning input data requirements and parameter uncertainty. In addition, the empirical remotely sensed regional scale crop yield estimation method does not enable growth process modeling. In this study, we developed a process-based rice yield estimation model by integrating an assimilate allocation module into the satellite remote sensing-derived and biophysical process-based Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS). Normalized accumulated gross primary productivity (GPPnorm-accu) was used as a scaler for growth development, and the relationships between GPPnorm-accu and dry matter partitioning coefficients were determined from the eddy covariance and biometric measurements at the Cheorwon Rice paddy KoFlux site. Over 95% of the variation in the dry matter allocation coefficients of rice grain could be explained by GPPnorm-accu. The dynamics of dry matter distribution among different rice components were simulated, and the annual grain yields were estimated. BESS-Rice simulated GPP and dry matter partitioning dynamics, and rice yields were evaluated against in-situ measurements at three paddy rice sites registered in KoFlux. The results showed that BESS-Rice performed well in terms of rice productivity estimation, with average root mean square error (RMSE) value of 2.2 g C m−2 d−1 (29.5%) and bias of –0.5 g C m−2 d−1 (–7.1%) for daily GPP, and an average RMSE value of 534.8 kg ha−1 (7.7%) and bias of 242.1 kg ha−1 (3.5%) for the annual yield, respectively. BESS-Rice is much simpler than conventional crop models and this helps to reduce the uncertainty related to the forcing variables and input parameters and can result in improved regional yield estimation. The process-based mechanism of BESS-Rice also enables an agronomic diagnosis to be made and the potential impacts of climate change on rice productivity to be investigated.