Benchmarking Forecasting Models for Space Weather Drivers

Abstract

AbstractSpace weather indices are commonly used to drive operational forecasts of various geospace systems, including the thermosphere for mass density and satellite drag. The drivers serve as proxies for various processes that cause energy flow and deposition in the geospace system. Forecasts of neutral mass density are a major uncertainty in operational orbit prediction and collision avoidance for objects in low Earth orbit (LEO). For the strongly driven system, accuracy of space weather driver forecasts is crucial for operations. The High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) currently employed by the U.S. Air Force in an operational environment is driven by four solar and two geomagnetic proxies. Space Environment Technologies (SET) is contracted by the space command to provide forecasts for the drivers. This work performs a comprehensive assessment for the performance of the driver forecast models. The goal is to provide a benchmark for future improvements of the forecast models. Using an archived data set spanning 6 years and 15,000 forecasts across Solar Cycle 24, we quantify the temporal statistics of the model performance.