Belgian blackout? Estimations of the reserve margin during the nuclear phase-out

Abstract

The outlook of the Belgian electricity system is increasingly unpredictable and challenging. Belgium is confronted with a nuclear phase out in a liberalized European electricity market which is strongly impacted by climate and renewable energy policies. The investment climate for controllable, non-intermittent assets is very problematic. We present estimates of the evolution of the reserve margin between 2014 and 2030, based on the events which took place at the end of 2015 regarding the availability of nuclear assets in Belgium. In the short term, until 2017, we expect the reserve margin to decrease from +1% to around −10%, taking into account the extension of the lifetime of the two oldest nuclear reactors in Belgium with ten years. Without this lifetime extension the reserve margin would have dropped to −17% by 2017. In the longer term, we find very negative and unsustainable reserve margins. In 2026, one year after the phase out of all the nuclear assets in Belgium, without new investments, the reserve margin could drop to −60%. In order to keep the reserve margin in Belgium at 5%, which can be considered as the lowest margin for secure supply, investments in gas and biomass assets in the range of € 11–13 billion would be required in the period 2014–2030.