Abstract
We are in the midst of a structural boom the force of which has not been seen in this country since the 1920’s. After the U.S. unemployment rate hit 6 percent in late 1994, following its two-year recovery, many experts assumed that unemployment had regained its naturalrate path. The natural unemployment rate in the second half of the 1980’s had been put at around 6.5 percent in several estimates, and if the trend reduction in the natural rate brought about by the continuing relative decline of high-school dropouts in the labor force and those whose education stopped at the diploma is placed at 0.07 per annum, it would have declined on that account to around 6 percent by 1995 (Phelps and Gylfi Zoega, 1997). Furthermore, we saw in 1995 the end of
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