Year-end Sale % OFF 
Abstract
This paper examines the recency bias and overreaction in the NFL betting market from 2003 to 2017. Consistent with the recency bias, bettors are more likely to bet on teams who have won previous outcomes. We add to the literature and find that the magnitude of prior wins and losses in the previous weeks’ plays a greater importance than the sole outcome of wins and losses in betting behavior. Additionally, our results show that bettors wager 2.1% less on the home team when their first-string quarterback does not play, and 3.1% more on the home team when the visitor’s first-string quarterback does not play, which is consistent with overreaction. Finally, our results show that bookmakers earn “over the odds” thanks to bettors’ quasi-rational behavior as they commit the recency bias.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
