Abstract
The chemical industry has made great contributions to the national economy, but frequent chemical plant explosion accidents (CPEAs) have also caused heavy property losses and casualties, as the CPEA is the result of interaction of many related risk factors, leading to uncertainty in the evolution of the accident. To systematically excavate and analyze the underlying causes of accidents, this paper first integrates emergency elements in the frame of orbit intersection theory and proposes 14 nodes to represent the evolution path of the accident. Then, combined with historical data and expert experience, a Bayesian network (BN) model of CPEAs was established. Through scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis, the interaction between factors and the impact of the factors on accident consequences was evaluated. It is found that the direct factors have the most obvious influence on the accident consequences, and the unsafe conditions contribute more than the unsafe behaviors. Furthermore, considering the factor chain, the management factors, especially safety education and training, are the key link of the accident that affects unsafe behaviors and unsafe conditions. Moreover, effective government emergency response has played a more prominent role in controlling environmental pollution. In addition, the complex network relationship between elements is presented in a sensitivity index matrix, and we extracted three important risk transmission paths from it. The research provides support for enterprises to formulate comprehensive safety production management strategies and control key factors in the risk transmission path to reduce CPEA risks.
Highlights
IntroductionWith the continuous development of the chemical industry, the production scale of chemical companies has gradually increased, resulting in frequent explosion accidents in chemical plants, causing heavy casualties and serious property losses, as well as great environmental pollution [1]
With the continuous development of the chemical industry, the production scale of chemical companies has gradually increased, resulting in frequent explosion accidents in chemical plants, causing heavy casualties and serious property losses, as well as great environmental pollution [1].According to the accident data of the State Administration of Work Safety, from 2006 to 2015, there were 125 safety accidents in chemical companies in China, resulting in 542 deaths
chemical plant explosion accidents (CPEAs) occurs, if the manager can obtain some actual information of the explosion accident in real time,athe model canmanager be used tocan update the some probability of the corresponding occurs, if the obtain actualdistribution information of the explosion node and analyze the posterior probability of other nodes based on the information
Summary
With the continuous development of the chemical industry, the production scale of chemical companies has gradually increased, resulting in frequent explosion accidents in chemical plants, causing heavy casualties and serious property losses, as well as great environmental pollution [1]. According to the accident data of the State Administration of Work Safety, from 2006 to 2015, there were 125 safety accidents in chemical companies in China, resulting in 542 deaths. 57 explosion accidents, accounting for 45.60% of the total number of accidents, caused a total of. 301 deaths, accounting for 55.53% of the total number of deaths [2]. There have been many serious chemical plant explosion accidents (CPEAs). On 28 February 2012, Hebei Keeper Chemical Industries Co., Ltd., located in Zhao
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