Bayesian Multi-level Mixed-effects Model for Influenza Dynamics

Abstract

Abstract Influenza A viruses (IAV) are the only influenza viruses known to cause flu pandemics. Understanding the evolution of different sub-types of IAV on their natural hosts is important for preventing and controlling the virus. We propose a mechanism-based Bayesian multi-level mixed-effects model for characterising influenza viral dynamics, described by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE). Both strain-specific and subject-specific random effects are included for the ODE parameters. Our models can characterise the common features in the population while taking into account the variations among individuals. The random effects selection is conducted at strain level through re-parameterising the covariance parameters of the corresponding random effect distribution. Our method does not need to solve ODE directly. We demonstrate that the posterior computation can proceed via a simple and efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The methods are illustrated using simulated data and a real data from a study relating virus load estimates from influenza infections in ducks.