Bayesian modelling of best-performance healthy life expectancy

Abstract

As life expectancy continues to increase, there is a growing concern that the same pace of health improvement may not follow. An ageing population spending more years in disability and long-term sickness can place a significant financial burden on society. It is therefore crucial for governments to accurately forecast not just life expectancy but also healthy life expectancy. In particular, examining the highest healthy life expectancy can provide valuable information, as it represents the current best experience worldwide. Although there have been numerous studies on forecasting life expectancy, relatively few authors have investigated the forecasting of healthy life expectancy, often due to health data limitations. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to co-model the highest healthy life expectancy and the highest life expectancy. The resulting forecasts would offer useful insights for governments in shaping healthcare and social policies to improve the wellbeing of seniors and retirees.