Bayesian modeling of post-vaccination serological data suggests that yearly vaccination of dog aged

Abstract

Rabies control remains challenging in low and middle-income countries, mostly due to lack of financial resources, rapid turnover of dog populations and poor accessibility to dogs. Rabies is endemic in Cambodia, where no national rabies vaccination program is implemented. The objective of this study was to assess the short and long-term vaccination-induced immunity in Cambodian dogs under field conditions, and to propose optimized vaccination strategies. A cohort of 351 dogs was followed at regular time points following primary vaccination only (PV) or PV plus single booster (BV). Fluorescent antibody virus neutralization test (FAVNT) was implemented to determine the neutralizing antibody titer against rabies and an individual titer ≥0·5 IU/mL indicated protection. Bayesian modeling was used to evaluate the individual duration of protection against rabies and the efficacy of two different vaccination strategies. Overall, 61% of dogs had a protective immunity one year after PV. In dogs receiving a BV, this protective immunity remained for up to one year after the BV in 95% of dogs. According to the best Bayesian model, a PV conferred a protective immunity in 82% of dogs (95% CI: 75-91%) for a mean duration of 4.7 years, and BV induced a lifelong protective immunity. Annual PV of dogs less than one year old and systematic BV solely of dogs vaccinated the year before would allow to achieve the 70% World Health Organization recommended threshold to control rabies circulation in a dog population in three to five years of implementation depending on dog population dynamics. This vaccination strategy would save up to about a third of vaccine doses, reducing cost and time efforts of mass dog vaccination campaigns. These results can contribute to optimize rabies control measures in Cambodia moving towards the global goal of ending human death from dog-mediated rabies by 2030.