Abstract
Global economic growth has stimulated the growth of international trade, leading to more maritime transport activities. However, in a complex and high-risk environment at sea, heavy ship accidents are difficult to eliminate. In order to prevent ship accidents more effectively, this paper attempts using Bayesian network model to construct the dependence relationship among ship’s inherent properties (ship age, ship flag, classification society, ship size and types), Port State Control (PSC) inspection defect items, accident and consequences. In addition, the model can be continuously updated as the external environment changes.
Highlights
Global economic growth has stimulated the growth of international trade, leading to more maritime transport activities
The model can be continuously updated as the external environment changes
After combing the literature (Hänninen & Kujala, 2014; Hänninen et al, 2014; Knapp & Franses, 2007; Li et al, 2014; Trucco et al, 2008; Yang et al, 2018), we know that the inherent properties of ships and Port State Control (PSC) inspection defects are the influencing factors for predicting ship accidents and losses
Summary
Global economic growth has stimulated the growth of international trade. It leads to more maritime transportation activities. The relationship between different safety indexes and accidents is modeled This approach provides useful potential information for security management, and contributes to continuous improvement and decision making [4]. This is a security issue with complex structure, diverse processes, and dynamic systems. This paper suggests that a more complete dynamic BN model can be attempted This BN model should contain all variables related to ship accidents, such as the impact factors of accidents, accident types, and accident consequences. This study attempts to build a dependency model among the inherent properties of ships, PSC inspection defects, ship accidents and accident consequences. This paper introduces an index representing the overall inspection defects of ship, that is, PSC inspection defect items affect ship accidents through a hidden variable
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