Bayesian hierarchical modeling of latent period switching in small-area putative health hazard studies

Abstract

In recent years, small area risk assessment modelling and data analysis around putative hazard sources has become a fundamental part of public health and environmental sciences. In this study, we address a fundamental problem in the analysis of such data, when intermittent operation of facilities could lead to evidence for latent periods of risk. This study examines the development of Bayesian models for the latent switching operating period of putative hazard sources such as nuclear processing plants and waste disposal incinerators. The developed methodology is applied in a simulation study as well as to a real data example.