Bayesian filter for failure times identification of moving heat sources in 2D geometry

Abstract

This study investigates the application of the Bayesian filter method for identifying failure times in a 2D parabolic partial differential equation system. The identification of failure times in thermal systems, which are subject to partial differential equations, presents significant difficulties, especially due to their ill-posed nature, which makes them highly sensitive to measurement errors. A Bayesian inference framework was previously developed in a related study, aiming to solve inverse heat conduction problems by utilising temperature measurements from sensors to estimate failure times or potential restarts of fixed heat sources. This paper focuses on the case of mobile sources, where a set of fixed sensors is considered and the trajectories of the heating sources are known and follow a constant velocity. The main objective is to accurately identify the failing heat sources and determine the exact failure time, as well as the possibility of resuming normal operation. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to assess the impact of sensor measurements.