Abstract
RESUMO Este artigo avalia os possíveis impactos decorrentes da mudança do capital requerido dos bancos no Brasil, com a implantação do Acordo de Basileia III. Para tanto, foi utilizada uma amostra de 58 bancos, que compreende 80% dos ativos do Sistema Financeiro Nacional, segundo os balanços de dezembro de 2012. A metodologia adotada simulou a necessidade de capital regulatório que será exigida ao final do período de transição, em 2019, considerando a continuidade dos ativos ponderados pelo risco (APR) contido nesses balanços. Assumindo que alguns bancos irão recorrer ao mercado de capitais para elevar sua capitalização, foram analisados os retornos sobre o patrimônio (return on equity - ROE) nos últimos três anos, comparados ao custo de capital próprio, estimado pelo modelo internacional de precificação de ativos de capital (international capital asset pricing model - ICAPM). Constatou-se que 23 instituições apresentaram algum tipo de desenquadramento ao novo capital regulatório, dentre as quais os 3 maiores bancos públicos federais. Verificou-se, também, que 39 bancos apresentam ROE insuficiente para atrair novos investidores. A análise conjunta da adequação da estrutura de capital e do nível de retorno pode identificar eventuais vulnerabilidades. Conclui-se que a implantação do Acordo de Basileia III no Brasil pode intensificar a busca por maior eficiência e lucratividade. Em um futuro cenário, o sistema bancário brasileiro pode observar uma onda de fusões e aquisições e o crescimento do número de ofertas públicas iniciais (initial public offerings - IPOs).
Highlights
Over the past two decades, the Brazilian banking sector has undergone a major consolidation, which increased its concentration, the presence of large retail banks, and, within the last five years, the participation of federal public banks increased.The 2008 international financial crisis has barely affected the capacity of this system
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has published a review of the Capital Accord entitled A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems, which became known as Basel III (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2011)
It was not considered that banks usually reinvest a part of their profits, because it is understood that each institution should review its dividend policy in order to fit the capital required by Basel III
Summary
Over the past two decades, the Brazilian banking sector has undergone a major consolidation, which increased its concentration, the presence of large retail banks, and, within the last five years, the participation of federal public banks increased. By acting on a wide range with capital regulation and liquidity standards, the new agreement leaves room to decision-making by local standard setters on how to implement and adapt the model to their specificities. These measures will lead the financial institutions to need better planning for their investment and lending actions, prioritizing the acquisition of assets that provide a better relation between return and risk. The second approach relates to the capacity of banks to attract capital in order to fit Basel III and, they should provide investors with consistent returns.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
