Abstract
Germany’s forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services ‘carbon’ and ‘timber’ benefit from climate change, while ‘water’ and ‘habitat’ lose. We detect clear trade-offs between ‘timber’ and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining ecosystem services) whereas southern and central forest regions are more suitable to fulfil ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’ services. The results provide the base for future forest management optimizations at the regional scale in order to maximize ecosystem services and forest ecosystem sustainability at the national scale.
Highlights
The timber harvested from Germany’s forests supports an economically significant forest sector (Kies et al 2008)
Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area
When comparing the absolute modelled timber harvest and stem increment of the baseline scenario with BWI3 data for each tree species considered in this study, we find that 4C reproduces species-specific yields in good correspondence with inventory data
Summary
The timber harvested from Germany’s forests supports an economically significant forest sector (Kies et al 2008). It generally contributes to climate mitigation by using wood as a substitute for fossil fuels (Beringer et al 2011, BMELV and BMU 2010, Creutzig et al 2015) and carbon-intensive materials such as concrete and steel (Pilli et al 2015). Forests provide other important ecosystem services and functions, besides timber, that are relevant for human well-being (MEA 2005). Forests harbour biodiversity, regulate water regimes and are seen as sites of cultural heritage with great identification and recreation service (de Groot et al 2010). In 2014, the German government decided to reduce Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2020 (UBA 2016).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
