Back to the Future Trenches?

Abstract

The Next Great War? The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict. Edited by Richard N. Rosencrance, Steven E Miller. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014. 285 pp., $23.89 hardcover (ISBN-13: 978-0-262-02899-8). What happened in 1914? Can it happen again? In 1914, militaries were out of control, having convinced themselves of the superiority of the offensive and their own superiority vis-a-vis their civilian counterparts; today, militaries are on a much tighter leash and less likely to believe in the destabilizing fantasy of a quick, glorious, and victorious strike. In 1914, the protagonist states faced domestic crises and paralysis that left them without the confidence needed to take the bold moves required to maintain peace; today, while certainly not without their problems, the players on the East Asian stage have not yet reached that point of desperation. In 1914, inward looking domestic coalitions that paired economic protectionism with virulent nationalism dominated the scene in Germany; today in China, the governing coalition is more internationalist, even if it does pepper this with appeals to nationalism upon occasion. In 1914, leaders lacked the foresight to recognize the devastation war would bring; today, nuclear weapons leave little doubt as to war's destructive power. In 1914, a precarious balance of power reigned; today, the United States and its allies remain regionally predominant. Many indicators suggest history will not repeat itself. But beware, as noted in the oft cited quotation from Mark Twain, history may still rhyme. Alliance partners can be dangerous sources of entanglement, both in 1914 and today. The South …