Back to the Future in 2002?: A Model of Sikh Separatism in Punjab

Abstract

The existing literature on the "Punjab crisis" is largely descriptive , offering only post-hoc explanations for both its emergence and for its decline. There is a paucity of literature that offers inferential quality in terms of predicting the possible rise of future Sikh separatism in Punjab, India. How can empirically oriented scholars use qualitative methods to build such models? Furthermore, what conditions have led to separatism in the past? Are current concerns about the possible reemergence of Sikh separatism warranted? This article attempts to answer these questions. By building on an important work by Paul R. Brass, this article will systematically construct, present, and apply a predictive model of Sikh separatism. It is argued that Sikh separatism will not reemerge in the near future, but transformations in the four political conditions delineated in the model have significant predictive value and need to be closely monitored by both academics and policymakers alike.