Azerbaijan’s power plays: analyzing Baku’s policy towards Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh after 2020

Abstract

ABSTRACT The article examines Azerbaijan’s policy towards Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh after the 44-day war of 2020. This research answers the questions: What is Azerbaijan’s strategy and policy following the 2020 war, and why has Azerbaijan been conducting them? The article’s argument is that Azerbaijan has been employing military coercion. It includes threats, territorial seizures, ultimatums, full-scale use of force, blackmailing, and other means to secure concessions and maintain a dominant position over its adversary. Applying the concept of coercion the article seeks to explain the article discusses several examples of how Azerbaijan employed these tactics against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Applying the concept of coercion, the research tries to comprehensively explain Azerbaijan’s policy and reveal conducive factors that encourage the implementation of such a policy. In some senses, the post-2020 period can be seen as a continuation of the 44-day war, characterised by lower intensity. The analysis contributes to further understanding of militarized coercion. Although the history of the conflict has been thoroughly examined by scholars, there are still a handful of studies on the post-2020 situation, which makes this article’s contribution important.