Avoiding future surprises after acute shocks: long-term flood risk lessons catalysed by the 2021 summer flood in the Netherlands

Abstract

In summer 2021, the Dutch Province of Limburg faced an acute high-water event caused by two days of heavy rainfall, resulting in €383 million worth of damage. Afterwards, various policy actors organised a number of evaluations. This study analyses these evaluations and the long-term lessons drawn from this flood event. Dealing with climate change requires insights into how lessons from acute shocks such as floods can stimulate the anticipation of climate change and solutions that can cope with future extremes. This study therefore applies policy learning theory—single, double and triple loop learning—to different layers of flood safety to analyse the extent to which governments prepare for future events and how.The results show that pre-2021 water and flood risk management policies—our point of comparison to derive what lessons emerge after the 2021 flood—focused mostly on flood prevention (layer 1) and from 1996 onwards with the start of the Room for the River programme also on spatial planning (layer 2), without paying much attention to crisis management (layer 3). Based on the 2021 flood, the official evaluation committee recommends adding two more layers to the multilayer flood safety approach: increasing water awareness (layer 0 as a base layer for the other layers) and focusing on climate-robust recovery after floods (layer 4) to improve long-term robustness. Based on our research, triple-loop learning as the deepest type of learning appeared in the form of applying the Room for the River approach to the tributary brooks systems. To prepare for the future, policy evaluations recommend improving stress tests to better deal with climate change. Futures scenarios and visions for the future are also recommended. Creating future visions can help to steer changes in existing land use and re-think areas to build or to use for water retention, for example. Governments are advised to strengthen their anticipatory capacities as part of their crisis management response and recovery systems. Furthermore, governments will need to apply the different layers for multilayer safety in an integrated way to ensure that regions are able to prepare for future floods.