Aviation Business Volume Forecast of Xianyang International Airport Based on Multiple Prediction Models

Abstract

With the continuous development of the strategy of the development of the western region and the gradual advancement of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, Xianyang Airport serves as the gateway for foreign exchanges in Xi’an, and the passenger and freight traffic volume has increased year by year. This article is based on the passenger and cargo traffic that has been available from 2009 to 2015. We will use the trend extrapolation method, the econometric method and the market share method to predict the passenger and cargo transportation volume from 2016 to 2018, comparing with the actual passenger and cargo transportation volume. Then we can obtain the annual error, and find the average error. According to the average error, the weights are determined. Finally, we combine the result with its weight, comparing with accurate result, and get more exact result. Therefore, this method is applied to the forecast of aviation traffic from 2019 to 2023, and then more accurate results are obtained. According to the air passenger and cargo transportation volume in the next five years, combined with the basic economic and population conditions, it will provide reference for the future development and functional positioning of Xianyang Airport.