Abstract
The present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk analysis and decision-making in relation to the HPP. The proposed methodology consists of two steps, firstly, the optimization of the maintenance schedule of the hydroelectric plant is carried out, in order to allocate the mandatory maintenance in the simulation horizon. Then, for the MCS, scenarios of forced shutdowns of the Generating Units (GU) will be generated, which directly influence the operation and, consequently, the availability of the HPP. The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the MCS. The proposed modeling was applied using real data from the Santo Antônio HPP, which is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Brazil.
Highlights
The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)
The second simulation, on the other hand, has a greater weight for the year 2020, as the objective is to verify what impact the improvements performed by the agent had on the risk analysis proposed by this work
This work presented a Monte Carlo Simulation to project the availability of hydroelectric plants
Summary
Academic Editors: Albert Smalcerz and Marcin Blachnik. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The extensive Brazilian territory influences the diversity of its electrical matrix, highlighting that its largest portion is made up of renewable sources. The source that stands out the most is the generation coming from hydroelectric plants. In Brazil, the National System Operator (NSO) is responsible for coordinating the National Interconnected System (NIS), which is composed of generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization companies [1]. The purpose of the NSO is to ensure the transmission of energy between the Brazilian subsystems (South, Southeast/Midwest, Northeast, and most of the North region), in a safe manner and with the lowest possible costs [2]
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