Abstract
This study presents a methodology for forecasting the medium– and long–term real revenues of the automotive post–sales service sectors, assuming the automobile industry is nowadays undergoing a deep process of transformation. There are several conditioning factors, usage as well as environmental reasons, that makes past times an unreasonable guide for a future forecast. Firstly, we estimate, using regression models, the most important variables for the automobile sector that will affect the long–term forecasts of the automotive aftermarket’s revenues. Secondly, we apply participatory methods to quantify the impact of the new conditioning factors. This is a research tool used for the Spanish automotive aftermarket. Our results indicate how stakeholders’ perceptions modulate the forecasts for those economic sectors involved in a disrupted changing business model.
Highlights
The automotive industry is one of the best performing sectors worldwide and it is playing an integral part in bringing growth back to the world’s economy
The goal of this paper is to present a methodology on how to forecast the future of the automotive aftermarket sector, taking into account that there are a number of conditioning factors, usage as well as environmental reasons, that will make the past an unreasonable guide to estimate the future
We present a methodology on how to forecast the future of an economic sector considering that there are several conditioning factors, both use and environmental reasons, that will make the past an unreasonable guide to estimate the future
Summary
The automotive industry is one of the best performing sectors worldwide and it is playing an integral part in bringing growth back to the world’s economy. With the enormous potential of emerging markets for future growth, a glut of deals is expected in different countries around the world over the coming years, including the European market It is clear the automotive industry is directly impacting the economy. Official estimates suggest that up to a quarter of the manufacturing jobs created in the US since 2010 are directly attributable to the recovery of the motor industry [2]. This is happening at a time where the automotive business model is undergoing a silent revolution, moving from the sale of independently owned and operated machines to on–demand, shared, autonomous, and electric transport
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