Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones

Abstract

Abstract Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfall are projected to decline across southern Australia during the twenty-first century. This is a robust signal in projections across models and explains more than 80% of projected declines in total cool-season rainfall in the region. Using cyclone-centered composites, we show that cyclone intensity based on wind speed is projected to decrease but cyclone maximum rainfall is projected to increase by close to 7% K−1 in the southeast. This results in a shift in the distribution of cyclone rainfall, with a decrease in moderate rainfall but little change or an increase in extreme rainfall. Significance Statement Extratropical cyclones are very important for southern Australian rainfall, and they are expected to become less frequent in a warming climate. Our research shows this explains at least 80% of the projected decline in cool-season rainfall in southern Australia. However, the frequency of extratropical cyclones with very heavy rainfall may increase, particularly in Tasmania and the southeast coast, with increases in rainfall intensity in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This contributes to increases in the frequency of very heavy rainfall in the future.