TC-induced Increases in Extreme Rainfall over the Northeast United States 

Abstract

The Northeast US has faced the most rapidly increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall within the US in the past few decades. The latest fully-coupled 25-km GFDL SPEAR simulation, possessing 10 ensemble members, presents a good opportunity to study changes in regional extreme rainfall and relevant physical processes in both current and future climates. The surge in extreme rainfall over the Northeast US since the 1990s is primarily linked to events associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). In a future warming climate, the 25-km GFDL SPEAR SSP5-8.5 simulations project unprecedented rainfall events over the Northeast US, driven by increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing and distinguishable from natural variability, by the mid-21st century. Also, the occurrences of extreme rainfall related to both atmospheric rivers and TCs are projected to increase, even though the number of TC in the North Atlantic is projected to decrease in the 25-km GFDL SPEAR SSP5-8.5 simulations. Factors such as enhancing TC intensity, strengthening TC-related rainfall, or/and westward shift in TC tracks may offset the influence of declining TC numbers in the model projections, leading to more frequent TC-related extreme rainfall over the Northeast US in the future. On the other hand, the increase in extreme rainfall linked to atmospheric rivers is projected to outpace that associated with TCs. Given the distinct spatial patterns of rainfall resulting from atmospheric rivers and TCs, shifts in their relative contributions carry profound implications for risk prevention and mitigation strategies.