Attitudes toward Fertility Trends and Policy in Japan

Abstract

The study attempted to clarify the determinants of Japanese attitudes toward fertility trends and policy. Multinomial logit model (the CATMOD procedure in the SAS package) was applied to data from the 1985 Demographic Survey on Changes in the Family Life Course and Household Structure (DSHH) conducted by the Institute of Population Problems in Tokyo which yielded 7707 usable questionnaires. The hypotheses with regard to demographic socioeconomic and regional determinants of attitudes were formulated based partly on previous studies of similar European and American survey data. The determinants of contrasts between positive negative and neutral attitudes toward 4 kinds of statements were analyzed: 1) antinatalist 2) pronatalist 3) that Japanese couples attain fertility goals by having the desired number of children and 4) that fertility policy is desirable. The results largely confirmed the hypotheses: being female young age high income and rural residence had negative effects on antinatalism while old age low income and metropolitan residence had positive effects. Being never married (positive) having 1 sibling and 5 or more siblings (positive) high education (negative) farmer status (negative) and low spending (negative) categories had significant effects. Similar variables had the opposite effects on positive or negative attitudes toward pronatalism; old age low education rural residence and residence in Tohoku and Hokuriku regions were associated with positive attitudes toward increased fertility. Being female and rural residence had a positive effect on increased fertility while middle age (35-49) being never married being a migrant high income and residence in Shikoku and Kyushu regions had negative effects; and being divorced or widowed small sibling size low education and farming were often associated with neutral attitudes.