Atmospheric inverse estimates of CO emissions from Zhengzhou, China

Abstract

Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important gas that affects human health and causes air pollution. However, the estimates of CO emissions in China are still subject to large uncertainties. Based on the CO mass concentration and the coupled Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model (WRF-STILT), this study estimates the CO emissions over Zhengzhou, China. The results show that the mean CO mass concentration was 1.17 mg m−3 from November 2017 to February 2018, with a clear diurnal variation. There were two periods of rapidly increasing CO concentration in the diurnal variation, which are 06:00–09:00 and 16:00–20:00 local time. The footprint analysis shows that the observation site is highly influenced by local emissions. The most influential regions to the site observations are northeast and northwest Zhengzhou, which are associated with the geographical barrier of the Taihang Mountains in the north and narrow Fenwei Plain in the west. The inversion result shows that the actual emissions are lower than the inventory estimates. Using the optimal scaling factors, the WRF-STILT simulations of CO concentration agree closely with the CO measurements with the linear fitting regression equation y = 0.87x + 0.15. The slopes of the linear fitting regressions between the WRF-STILT-simulated CO concentrations determined using the optimal emissions and the observations range from 0.72 to 0.89 for four months, and all the fitting results passed the significance test (P < 0.001). These results indicate that the new optimal emissions derived with the scaling factors could better represent the real emission conditions than the a priori emissions if the WRF-STILT model is assumed to be reliable.