Abstract

The accuracy of wildfire air pollutant emission estimates was assessed by comparing observations of carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in wildfire plumes to predictions of CO and PM concentrations, based on emission estimates and air quality models. The comparisons were done for observations made in southeast Texas in August and September of 2000. The fire emissions were estimated from acreage burned, fuel loading information, and fuel emission factor models. A total of 389 km 2 (96,100 acres) burned in wildfires in the domain encompassing the Houston/Galveston-Beaumont/Port Arthur (HGBPA) area during August and September 2000. On the days of highest wildfire activity, the fires resulted in an estimated 3700 tons of CO emissions, 250 tons of volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions, 340 tons of PM2.5, and 50 tons of NOx emissions; estimated CO and VOC emissions from the fires exceeded light duty gasoline vehicle emissions in the Houston area on those days. When the appropriate aircraft data were available, aloft measurements of CO in the fire plumes were compared to concentrations of CO predicted using the emission estimates. Concentrations estimated based on emission predictions and air quality models were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. The estimated emissions from fires were used, together with a gridded photochemical model, to characterize the extent of dispersion of the fire emissions and the photochemistry associated with the fire emissions. Although the dispersion and photochemical impacts varied from fire to fire, for wildfires less than 10,000 acres, the greatest enhancements of CO and ozone concentrations due to the fire emissions were generally confined to regions within 10–100 km of the fire. Within 10 km of these fires, CO concentrations can exceed 2 ppm and ozone concentrations can be enhanced by 60 ppb. The extent of photo-oxidant formation in the plumes was limited by NOx availability and isoprene emissions from forested areas downwind of the fires provided most of the hydrocarbon reactivity in the plumes. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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