Abstract
Winter precipitation (snowpack) in the European Alps provides a critical source of freshwater to major river basins such as the Danube, Rhine, and Po. Previous research identified Atlantic Ocean variability and hydrologic responses in the European Alps. The research presented here evaluates Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and European Alps winter precipitation variability using Singular Value Decomposition. Regions in the north and mid-Atlantic from the SSTs were identified as being tele-connected with winter precipitation in the European Alps. Indices were generated for these Atlantic SST regions to use in prediction of precipitation. Regression and non-parametric models were developed using the indices as predictors and winter precipitation as the predictand for twenty-one alpine precipitation stations in Austria, Germany, and Italy. The proposed framework identified three regions in the European Alps in which model skill ranged from excellent (West Region–Po River Basin), to good (East Region) to poor (Central Region). A novel approach for forecasting future winter precipitation utilizing future projections of Atlantic SSTs predicts increased winter precipitation until ~2040, followed by decreased winter precipitation until ~2070, and then followed by increasing winter precipitation until ~2100.
Highlights
The Alps are often referred to as the “water towers” of Europe and provide a vital supply of freshwater to many of Europe’s most important rivers (e.g., Rhine, Po, Rhone) and tributaries of the Danube [1]
SVD (1st mode based on squared covariance fraction (SCF) values) identified two regions in the AO that were tele-connected with winter precipitation (Figure 1b)
It is noteworthy that high skill was obtained for precipitation
Summary
The Alps are often referred to as the “water towers” of Europe and provide a vital supply of freshwater to many of Europe’s most important rivers (e.g., Rhine, Po, Rhone) and tributaries of the Danube [1]. An understanding of winter precipitation variability in the European Alps is important for municipal water supply, energy (hydropower), agriculture and recreation (skiing). Schöner et al [2] examined Swiss-Austrian snow depth from 1961 to 2012 and seven spatiotemporal regions of snow depth were determined. Marty et al [3] examined European Alps’ Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and observed that the multi-decadal SWE decrease was independent of latitude or longitude despite the different climate regions in the Alpine domain. Increasing temperatures combined with a reduction in precipitation were the main drivers for the pronounced SWE loss [3] and snow loss (e.g., deteriorating snow conditions on ski slopes) could have a devastating impact on ski tourism [4]
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