At the extremes: Assessing interrelations among the impacts of and responses to extreme hydroclimatic events in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

Abstract

As climates continue to change, semi-arid rainfall regimes are projected to become increasingly more extreme, with longer dry periods and fewer, but more intense, heavy rainfall events. This process of hydroclimatic intensification increases the risk associated with successive extreme climate hazards, such as drought and then heavy rainfall, in the same area. However, the development of effective adaptation strategies to drought, heavy rainfall, and flood hazards is hampered by the lack of integrated analyses that consider the interactions among these hazards and responses to them. To increase understanding of these interactions, this paper examines impacts of and adaptive actions taken in response to prolonged drought (2012–2018) and subsequent extreme rainfall and flooding (March and April 2023) in the semi-arid region of Ceará, Northeast Brazil. We find that policies and adaptive measures focus primarily on drought hazard, while preparation for extreme rainfall events and flooding is scant. Management plans and long-term adaptive strategies are being developed for drought and not other extreme hydrometeorological events. Additionally, emergency measures for extreme rainfall and flooding are much less structured than those for drought. As such, the paradigm “Convivência com o semiárido” (“Living with the semi-arid region”) remains limited to adapting to drought hazard, ultimately hindering adequate extreme rainfall and drought responses. To promote more effective adaptive strategies in the context of hydroclimatic intensification in semi-arid regions, drought, heavy rainfall, and flood responses must be considered in a more integrated manner to create management plans to prepare for the potential impacts of these hazards into the future.