Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications

Abstract

Using quarterly data for the United States, the evidence differentiates the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks to government spending around an anticipated steady-state trend over time. While interest rates increase in the face of expansionary government spending shocks, there is no evidence of a reduction in the face of contractionary shocks. Consequently, the increased government spending crowds out private investment. Moreover, there is evidence of a reduction in private consumption as agents anticipate a future increase in taxes to finance the increased government spending. As a result, output growth and price inflation are decreasing despite expansionary government spending shocks, on average, over time. In view of this evidence, public finance considerations ought to dominate attempts to stimulate demand using government spending near full-equilibrium capacity utilization in the economy. In contrast, contractionary government spending shocks are not offset by an increase in private spending. Hence, demand contraction is pronounced, slowing output growth and price inflation in the face of a reduction in government spending. The implication is that concerns over the pronounced contractionary effects of a reduction in government spending ought to dominate public finance considerations near full-equilibrium.