Asymmetric impacts of European transmission network development towards 2050: Stakeholder assessment based on IRENE-40 scenarios

Abstract

This paper presents the assessment of stakeholder impacts of European electricity transmission network investments for a set of future system development scenarios. A techno-economic analysis is adopted, which quantifies the economic impacts on different stakeholders including electricity producers, consumers, and network investors, under the future de-carbonisation pathways described in the IRENE-40 scenarios, ranging from 2010 to 2050. To quantify the impact of transmission infrastructure development, for each pathway, two distinct scenarios of future European transmission development are assessed: “low” (no new transmission between 2010 and 2050) and “high” (optimal transmission development between 2010 and 2050 to accommodate the generation pathway).The geographical scope of the analysis covers the EU 27+2 nations. A detailed case study of Spain and France is presented to illustrate the so-called ‘asymmetric’ impacts towards different stakeholders in different importing and exporting zones. The resulting arbitrage trades shift the market equilibriums, which eventually affect asymmetrically the welfare of stakeholders.