Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate on the Trade between Iran and China

Abstract

The Exchange rate and policies related to that have long been a subject of interest in Iran and one of the main challenges of the country's economy. The exchange rate determinant, effects of currency depreciation or devaluation on a country's trade balance and economic variables are usually critical issue in Iran. So, this paper examines the effect of the real exchange rate on the trade balance between Iran and China which is one of its largest current trade partners. For this purpose, a nonlinear symmetric method is used over the period of 1993-2016. The results show that the most appropriate method in such studies is the use of asymmetric and nonlinear models, and it provides more efficient short-run and long-run coefficient estimates. On the other hand, the increase of the exchange rate, which is the depreciation of the Rial against the Yuan, improves in the long-run and short-run trade, although its long-term effect has been more than its short-term effects. But the depreciation of the Yuan makes the balance in favor of China, as well as the effect of the depreciation of the exchange rate more than its effect on the trade balance between the two countries. Therefore, it is suggested that the realization of the value of the Rial against the yuan and allowing the depreciation of the national currency in line with inflation and other indicators would increase the competitiveness and expand foreign trade.