Asymmetric effects of life and non-life insurance on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: A nonlinear analysis

Abstract

This paper explores the asymmetric effects of life and non-life insurance on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Quarterly data on insurance penetration rates and GDP growth from 2009 to 2022, obtained from the Global Economy, Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, and World Bank databases, are utilized. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed to examine the relationships between insurance and growth. The results reveal a significant and asymmetric relationship between life insurance penetration and GDP growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in life insurance penetration is associated with a 0.3% increase in GDP growth in the long run, while a 1% decrease shows no significant effect. For non-life insurance, both increases and decreases demonstrate significant but asymmetric impacts on growth. A 1% increase in non-life insurance penetration corresponds to a 0.2% increase in GDP growth, whereas a 1% decrease is linked to a 0.15% decrease in GDP growth. These findings support the ‘supply-leading’ hypothesis, suggesting that the insurance sector can play a leading role in promoting economic growth. The results provide new quantitative insights into the relationship between insurance and economic growth in Saudi Arabia, offering valuable implications for policymakers. It is suggested that the insurance industry can be leveraged to foster economic growth by promoting life insurance and managing the asymmetric impacts of non-life insurance.