Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model

Abstract

In theory, changes in the price of oil, which is a critical raw material for production, can affect the Producer Price Index (PPI). In this study, the PCA method is first employed to extract factors from the PPI of 39 industrial sectors in China, followed by the application of the NARDL model to analyze the nonlinear effects of international oil price fluctuations on the PPI of three industries. The results indicate that the long and short-term fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on the PPI of resource-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries, but the impact on capital and technology-intensive industries is not significant. However, it is worth noting that the long-term increases in oil prices will have a negative impact on the PPI of resource-intensive industries. From the perspective of asymmetry, the positive and negative shocks of international oil prices will have an asymmetric impact on the PPI of labor-intensive industries, while the impact on resource-intensive industries is symmetric. Based on the existing conclusions, this article proposes relevant policy recommendations from the perspectives of both government and enterprises.