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Abstract
BackgroundNumerous studies have found associations between extreme temperatures and human mortality but relatively few studies have been done in sub-tropical and tropical cities, especially in Asia. In this study we examine the impact of cold temperatures, cold waves and other meteorological and environmental variables on cool season mortality in 2 subtropical Asian cities.MethodsSeparate analysis of daily mortality time-series from Hong Kong and Taipei using Generalized Additive Models with natural mortality as the outcome daily mean temperature as the main explanatory variable and relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, pollutants (nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), respirable suspended particulates (PM10), ozone (O3), seasonality and day of the week controlled as potential confounders. Lags up to 35 days were considered for temperature, and distributed lag models were used to determine the number of lags for final models. Subgroup analyses were also done by gender, age group, cause of death and geographical area of residence.ResultsCold temperatures were strongly associated with higher mortality with lagged effects persisting up to 3 weeks in Hong Kong and 2 weeks in Taipei. Cold effects were much stronger for deaths among older people and non-cancer deaths. Prolonged cold spells modestly but significantly raised mortality after accounting for the effects of individual cold days. Higher daily ozone levels were also strongly associated with higher short-term mortality in Taipei and Hong Kong, while relative humidity and solar radiation were weakly and inconsistently associated with mortality.ConclusionsCold temperatures and cold spells substantially increase short-term mortality in sub-tropical Asian cities particularly among the elderly. Greater attention needs to be paid to the adverse health effects of cold temperatures. Interventions including provisions of shelters, cold weather warnings and education about the possible health effects of cold temperature should be carried out in sub-tropical areas.
Highlights
Numerous studies have found associations between extreme temperatures and human mortality but relatively few studies have been done in sub-tropical and tropical cities, especially in Asia
Relative humidity levels were similar while total solar radiation and mean wind speed were considerably higher in Hong Kong
particles with diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) levels were slightly higher in Hong Kong than Taipei
Summary
Numerous studies have found associations between extreme temperatures and human mortality but relatively few studies have been done in sub-tropical and tropical cities, especially in Asia. A multi-city study of temperature effects in cities in Thailand, India, Latin America and Eastern Europe [4] found that heat and cold effects on mortality were apparent in almost all of the cities considered but that the threshold at which these effects became apparent varied considerably. A recent study of associations between apparent temperature and mortality in Beijing, Taipei, Seoul and Tokyo [5], found strong heat effects on mortality with thresholds ranging from 30-31°C. They did not examine cold effects in detail and did not consider lags beyond 2 days, a serious limitation for studies of cold effects on mortality. A study conducted using data from rural areas of Bangledesh estimated a 3.2% increase in allcause mortality for each 1°C. drop (average of lags 0–13 mean temperature) below a threshold of 21°C [6]
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