Association of built environment attributes with the spread of COVID-19 at its initial stage in China

Abstract

Evidence of the association of built environment (BE) attributes with the spread of COVID-19 remains limited. As an additional effort, this study regresses a ratio of accumulative confirmed infection cases at the city level in China on both inter-city and intra-city BE attributes. A mixed geographically weighted regression model was estimated to accommodate both local and global effects of BE attributes. It is found that spatial clusters are mostly related to low infections in 28.63 % of the cities. The density of point of interests around railway stations, travel time by public transport to activity centers, and the number of flights from Hubei Province are associated with the spread. On average, the most influential BE attribute is the number of trains from Hubei Province. Higher infection ratios are associated with higher values of between-ness centrality in 70.98 % of the cities. In 79.22 % of the cities, the percentage of the aging population shows a negative association. A positive association of the population density in built-up areas is found in 68.75 % of county-level cities. It is concluded that the countermeasures in China could have well reflected spatial heterogeneities, and the BE could be further improved to mitigate the impacts of future pandemics.